Think tank warns Taiwan against China’s “anaconda strategy”

The Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a US-based think tank, has warned Taiwan against China’s “anaconda strategy,” under which Beijing might resort to cyberwarfare and disinformation campaigns, the Taipei Times reported.

The Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD) held a tabletop exercise in Taipei, earlier this month focusing on Beijing’s use of economic and cybercoercion against Taiwan.

China is likely to continue using economic and cyberoperations against Taiwan to force it to capitulate without resorting to a military attack, Fox News reported, citing outcome of the tabletop exercise.

The FDD mentioned an “anaconda strategy,” in which Beijing would likely use cyberwarfare and disinformation campaigns followed by a blockade or other measures to strangulate Taiwan, rather than attempt an invasion.

A large-scale cyberattack would be far costlier to defend against than to launch, thereby giving China the advantage, it added.

“This asymmetry allows China to exert considerable pressure on Taiwan without triggering a direct US military response,” it said, adding that China would use covert cyberwarfare operations that provide it with “just enough cover to maintain plausible deniability,” as reported by the Taipei Times.

Former US Navy rear admiral Mark Montgomery, who is the senior director of the FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, said that Taiwan faces severe challenges in sustaining its economy in the event of an attack on its critical infrastructure by China.

“How do you keep things going during a series of interlaced critical infrastructure failures, where electrical power drives a problem with financial services, things like that?” he asked.

The report further suggested that, in addition to cyberattacks, China might also attempt to affect the morale of Taiwanese by spreading misinformation.

Researcher Dean Karalekas has said in the report that while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has spurred preparation in Taiwan, that preparation might not be particularly useful.

Rather than kinetic warfare such as the one in Ukraine, Taiwan was more likely to face being cut off from its supplies of energy, food and other imports, he said.

According to FDD, Taiwan’s reserve troops are “poorly trained” and lack sufficient equipment to effectively support the regular army in wartime.

Taiwan is also highly dependent on imported liquefied natural gas and has limited energy reserves, it added.

“Once key routes are blocked, it may fall into an energy shortage crisis, and although Taiwan actively develops green energy, such as wind power generation, these facilities can easily become targets of enemy attacks during wartime, making it difficult to provide a stable power supply,” the think tank stated.

The think tank has recommended Taiwan to actively demonstrate to the international community its determination to defend itself and resolve through specific actions; including increasing its defence budget, strengthening reserve force training and diversifying energy sources, the Taipei Times reported.