The era of Turkey’s autocratic President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been dominating the country’s political life for more than 20 years, winning five parliamentary and two Presidential elections, may come to an end this month, as most polls predict that CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is dubbed as “Turkey’s Gandhi” will secure more votes in the elections of May 14 and could win a probable run-off election. The entry of two minor candidates means that Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will likely face each other again in a runoff on May 28.
The opposition alliance has promised that, if elected, Turkey will return to sound economic policies, restore parliamentary democracy and make serious changes to Erdogan’s current foreign policy. Many people in Turkey and abroad, see the forthcoming elections as the most consequential in Turkey’s recent history, elections that will have far-reaching repercussions on both the political and economic life in the country, but will also have repercussions on the wider Middle East region, as well as on Ankara’s relationship with the West, the US, the EU, the NATO Alliance and Moscow. Indicative of the far-reaching importance of this Presidential election in Turkey is that the “Economist” magazine in the front cover of its latest issue described it as ‘The Most Important Election of 2023.”
Soner Cagaptay, of the Washington Institute, points out that May’s election will be the most competitive race in Erdogan’s career and adds: “He faces a unified opposition eager to take advantage of the country’s economic troubles and of the government’s botched response to the catastrophic earthquake in February.”
The rising inflation and the slow response of the Turkish government to last February’s earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people and left millions homeless, has angered a lot of people who in the past voted for Erdogan. Now these people, along with hundreds of thousands of young people who do not see any prospect of finding a good job, are now willing to give Kemal Kilicdaroglu the leader of a six-party coalition the chance to beat Erdogan in the polls.
Now, with regard to the Middle East, the first impact of a change in government in Turkey will be felt in Syria. The six-party coalition in their electoral manifesto declared that, if they are successful, they plan to withdraw from Northwest Syria and start discussions with the Assad regime.
Kilicdaroglu has repeatedly declared that Syrian refugees living in Turkey will be repatriated to their homes in two years. He also stressed that he sees the Assad regime as a potential partner in the Middle East and so he has better chances of reaching an agreement with Bashar al Assad than Erdogan, who had launched four military operations in Syria and supported the forces that were trying to topple the Syrian regime.
Unal Cevikoz, Kilicdaroglu’s chief advisor on foreign affairs, said last month that the Kilicdaroglu government will do its utmost to normalize relations with the international community, the European Union and NATO.
With regard to NATO, Turkey under Kilicdaroglu is expected to play a more constructive role and lift Ankara’s objections to Sweden becoming a member of the Alliance. However, “Turkey’s Gandhi” will endeavour to maintain good relations with Russia, although he is expected to try hard to convince the West that Turkey is no longer helping Russia evade sanctions.
It is not clear that Kilicdaroglu, if elected President, will make any move to satisfy US and NATO concerns about the S-400 missile batteries, because this may be seen as giving in to US demands. As there is a strong anti-American feeling in Turkey, it would be very dangerous for any Turkish President to ignore this long-held perception in the country that the US is a threat to Turkey’s security. Of course, if Ankara ends the presence of the S-400 on Turkish soil, it will be rewarded by being allowed to acquire the F-35 fighters and sophisticated hardware that is necessary for its own arms industry.
On the other hand, in such a case, Russia will retaliate probably by stopping the building of the Akkuyu nuclear power station, curtailing gas supplies, prohibiting tourists from Russia to visit or buy property in Turkey and by imposing restrictions on Turkish agricultural products.
In the past, Kilicdaroglu strongly criticized Erdogan for sending Turkish soldiers to fight in Libya and for being prepared to spill the blood of Turkish soldiers abroad. So, he may be prepared to cease Ankara’s intervention in the civil war in the African country and bring its troops back to Turkey. His aim is to be an honest broker in Libya, by talking to all sides in the conflict.
The Nation Alliance (the six parties led by Kilicdaroglu) has declared that Turkey will re-adopt Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s slogan “peace at home, peace in the world” as its foreign policy cornerstone.
Since last year, Erdogan has been trying to improve Turkey’s relations with some countries and leaders he had sharply criticized in the past and particularly those of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Israel, and has toned down his rhetoric. However, he was not able to show great success in this area, as apparently, those leaders are not sure that he has really had a change of heart or that his offer of friendship is genuine and is not serving expediency.
Kilicdaroglu is determined to restore Turkey’s relations with the EU and, according to press reports, he stated that his government would implement the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) judgements, and release from jail prominent Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas and Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala. Furthermore, his government would meet all the benchmarks and reforms demanded by the bloc, even if the EU does not accept Turkey as a member.
Many people express doubts if Erdogan will not try to rig the elections or that he would agree to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the elections. Last week 50 lawyers appointed by the pro-Kurdish party to monitor the elections were arrested. Trying to prevent any foul play by Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu’s supporters plan to send some 300,000 observers to all the 50,000 polling stations, double the number of observers in the 2018 Presidential election.
