Putin lands in UAE, oil and Israel-Hamas war on radar

As the Israeli offensive in Gaza entered into a more intense phase with the invasion of Khan Younis township, Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Oil and Palestinians, according to the Kremlin, is what Putin will discuss with Emiratis, Saudis and later in Moscow with the Iranians.

Putin’s trip is also rare as he has only visited China since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in February 2022 for he faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over the war in Ukraine.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE has signed the ICC founding treaty, meaning they don’t face any obligation to detain Putin over the warrant accusing him of being personally responsible for the abductions of children from Ukraine during his war on the country.

Russia’s energy ties with Middle East countries and military assistance of Iran have worked as a major bulwark against the US-led Western push to corner Moscow.

Putin’s visit to West Asia comes after the OPEC+ group, which consists of the world’s largest oil-producing countries and is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced last week that it would deepen production cuts to about 2.2 million barrels per day to stabilise the global oil market.

Accounting for more than 40% of global crude production, the group decided to limit output amid worries that the market could face a potential surplus after earlier production cuts were set to expire next month.

Benchmark Brent crude traded on Wednesday around $77 a barrel, down from nearly $100 in September, over concerns about a weakening economy worldwide.

The visit comes after COP28 saw a parade of Western leaders including U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and others backing Ukraine speak at the summit. So did Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, long a Putin ally.

A readout on Putin’s trip from the state-run Tass news agency published early on Wednesday offered no suggestion Putin might come to the COP28 site, instead quoting Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov saying he’d land and have a “meeting at the palace” and one-on-one talks with Sheikh Mohammed. Still, some reports suggest Putin could make an appearance at the climate talks.

Putin’s drive to bolster its ties with the Gulf and other Middle Eastern states is part of his efforts to demonstrate that Western attempts to isolate Moscow through sanctions for its war on Ukraine have failed.

Apart from the oil output, Putin is also expected to discuss the ongoing Israel-Hamas war with Saudi’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, which advises the Kremlin, told Bloomberg that Putin’s visit to the two key Gulf powers is “a clear sign” that Russia is breaking out of its international isolation. Furthermore, the move serves to increase Russia’s West Asia influence.

Reports state that Putin will hold discussions on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, as a means to reassert Russia’s influence in West Asia. Importantly, Hamas, which has been dubbed as a terrorist group by several Western countries, is on good terms with Russia, often sending delegations to Moscow.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide, told Interfax news agency earlier: “It is inevitable. It would be important for our colleagues to listen to Vladimir Putin’s assessments of how the situation is developing.”

Putin, according to analysts, wants to leverage this relationship and assert himself in the crisis. Analysts added that Putin has little to lose by doing so and much to gain. The Russian leader has earlier suggested that Moscow could play the role of mediator, thanks to its friendly ties with both Israel and the Palestinians, saying that “no one could suspect us of playing up to one party.”