Biden may follow Trump’s China policy minus bluster

The US election has been a complete China election. With an agenda comprising the coronavirus, a Covid-hit economy, and 'whose China policy is better,' the dragon loomed large over the US 2020 poll. Among the half-a-dozen major issues that figured in the US election campaign, China dominated the talking points. However, the US policy towards China is unlikely to see a major shift from the prevailing strident one adopted by US President Donald Trump even if Joe Biden takes over as the next President.

It is not just the two presidential candidates who have debated China at the electoral platform, even the common American on the street has thought about the China factor carefully, and how it has impacted the last person standing. The Chinese aggression writ large on the global map, the war cries emanating often, violation of human rights and its successful debt-trap economic policy has not gone unnoticed.

Why Biden may have to follow in Trump's footsteps is clear. The American voter is incensed with China's role in spreading the coronavirus. An opinion poll by the Pew Research Center in July this year found 73 per cent American adults hold an unfavorable view of China, which is up from 2018. Nearly 64 per cent say that China has done a poor job of handling the coronavirus outbreak, 78 per cent say China takes the blame for its global spread and 77 per cent say that they have no faith in President Xi Jinping doing the right thing in global affairs.

https://indianarrative.com/world/china-aggression-pushes-india-towards-beca-other-strategic-alliances-19156.html

Though foreign affairs are not usually a major topic of interest with the voting public, American public opinion is overwhelmingly against the communist country in this election.

Biden is most likely to continue with Trump's policy towards China, albeit with a different attitude.

Dr Jagannath P. Panda, research fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (MPIDSA), told <strong><a href="https://indianarrative.com/">India Narrative</a></strong>: "A return to engage with China might be a preferred tone of Biden’s China policy without diverting much from a demanding approach. Biden’s China policy will be drawn on America’s national interest without diverting much from Trump’s policy. Unlike Trump’s approach, the tone and tenor of Biden’s China policy might emerge to be non-aggressive."

Even as Trump and Biden were slugging it out, the latter's son Hunter Biden came into the spotlight—over alleged dealings with Chinese individuals and companies during his father's tenure as VP under previous President Barack Obama. With just three weeks to go for elections, some of the American media reported that Hunter was making money through various deals as a director on the board of various Ukrainian and Chinese companies. Trump cashed in on the opportunity and alleged that Hunter had been making millions while flying with his father on Air Force two. Trump even alleged that the US mainstream media kept silent over Hunter’s corruption.

While Biden rejected any wrongdoings by his son, he is often seen as a softie when it comes to dealing with China. Biden too has suggested that he favors a more multilateral approach and the formation of alliances against the communist giant. Simultaneously, he has his own ideas about dealing with the dragon. Biden has said that he will ensure that US government departments buy more American products that are manufactured domestically.

He also has to deal with snooping indulged in by Chinese companies, which has become a matter of concern worldwide. Intellectual property theft and how personal data is used by Chinese tech companies is already on his list. He said: “God only knows what they’re doing with information they’re picking up off of here. So as president, I will go into it very deeply I’ll get the cyber-experts in with me to give me what is the best solution to deal with it.”

Biden has also said that he will meet the Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama and try to enforce the rule of law in Hong Kong. He has sympathized with the Ughyur Muslims who have been thrown in concentration camps by the China Communist Party. With China not leaving any stone unturned in being a global bully, Biden will be busy. He may, therefore, also continue Trump's policies as well, minus the bluster.

Once the heat and dust of the US elections settles down, and Biden takes his time framing his response to China, it will have major implications for India. With Biden in office, New Delhi will be watching keenly how the US-China relationship develops. China too will make its moves afresh. Trump has thrown his might behind India. He has been open about the Chinese threat to India on its borders, has sold weapons to India, and has been forthright in forming alliances with democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific.

Dr. Jabin T. Jacob, associate professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University, told <strong><a href="https://indianarrative.com/">India Narrative</a></strong> that irrespective of the US presidents, US' China policy, whether under Biden or Trump, will still pose several challenges for India. “By and large the consensus in the US is that Chinese power and international behavior needs to be reined in. But the question is of the methods the US adopts to this end.”

He also feels that Biden might be willing to be both a little less confrontational as well as a little less transactional on policies towards China. “For New Delhi, it is important that the US stands its ground on confronting Chinese bad behavior and not be willing to make sudden U-turns or quick deals as Trump has been prone to. On the other hand, trying to seek a peaceful accommodation with China because the US has economic constraints and now—as it looks increasingly likely—is a divided house domestically, is fraught with danger for India because this will only embolden China to stay its present course.”

For India, irrespective of who takes over charge in Washington, the only solution really is to develop its own capabilities vis-à-vis China. Partnerships or alliances with other countries, though necessary, will take India only as far. As India decouples with China over economy and faces a serious military threat on the Ladakh border, India may have to bite the bullet and take on China irrespective of the person who takes the oath on January 20.

https://indianarrative.com/world/xi-to-reassert-authority-at-ccps-fifth-plenary-focus-on-five-year-plan-18612.html.