The new defence partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) is one of the most important strategic developments of our times. The partnership signals the strategic intent and willingness of Australia to acquire military capabilities which can strengthen deterrence against the Chinese aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

France is understandably furious and hurt as Australia decided to cancel the submarine deal with France and is now seeking the US’ nuclear-powered submarines. The submarine deal was an important element in the French Indo-Pacific Strategy. The manner of the AUKUS announcement came as a shock to the French.

It was clear that France was not kept in the loop while the AUKUS was being negotiated among the three countries. To signal its displeasure, France has recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra for consultations. France has also cancelled the trilateral meeting between India, France and Australia.

In the wake of AUKUS, there are fears about the future of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) between the US, Australia, India and Japan. Quad is also gradually expanding its ambit by taking a broad range of issues from maritime security, vaccine supplies to supply chains.

However, the in-person meeting of Quad leaders at the White House, scheduled on 24th September, is a positive signal. In the wake of the AUKUS, the Quad meeting holds even greater strategic significance as the US’ partners and allies, in Europe and Asia, will be closely watching it.

For those in India who are worried about the impact of AUKUS over the Quad, Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla has reassured that “AUKUS is a security alliance between three countries. We are not party to this alliance. From our perspective, this is neither relevant to the QUAD, nor will it have any impact on its functioning.”

For India, the strengthening of defence partnership between the two Quad countries is a welcome development. It builds the Australian capabilities, increases the interoperability between the US and Australia and signals a message to China in an unambiguous manner. Among the Quad members, Australia was seen as a hesitant partner when it comes to standing up to Chinese behaviour. AUKUS is a signal that Australia is making a clear strategic choice.

Strengthening the US-Australia partnership feeds into the larger strategic dynamics of the Quad. India is also deepening its strategic partnership with three other states in the Quad. Recently, India and Australia held their inaugural 2+2 meeting between foreign and defence ministers. The deeper the bilateral and trilateral ties between all four participating states, the stronger the Quad mechanism.

Despite the snub from the AUKUS states, France still remains an important Indo-Pacific power. It holds territories and consequently, a strong military footprint, in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific. French military capabilities and a well-developed defence-industrial base including the naval technological capacity make France one of the key anchors in the Indo-Pacific security.  

The European Union (EU) recently came out with its own Indo-Pacific strategy. Although the announcement of the AUKUS overshadowed the launch of the Strategy, France has a significant role to play in the EU’s Indo-Pacific pivot.

Overall, the sources of French power and presence in the Indo-Pacific remain intact. AUKUS was seen as a betrayal by friends who will make up eventually. Shared values, converging geopolitical interests (of AUKUS countries and France) and Chinese assertiveness will perhaps necessitate and in time, accelerate this process.

Meanwhile, India could sense an opportunity to further deepen its strategic partnership with France. Deals for advanced weapons systems and  more importantly technology transfers could be explored. Some Indian strategists have already hinted at such a possibility.

The Indo-French strategic partnership has strengthened considerably over the last few years. French-made Rafale fighter jets are becoming a mainstay of the Indian Air Force. Indian and French navies have conducted exercises earlier this year and are closely working together in the Indo-Pacific region. In fact, the Indo-French strategic partnership has never been in better shape.

India and France collaborate closely in important regional forums like Indian Ocean Regional Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) as well. India was recently admitted  as the observer of the French-dominated Indian Ocean Commission (IOC).

Deepening Indo-French defence partnership is seen as a firm pillar in ensuring security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. In the context of AUKUS, France would also like to demonstrate its capabilities and willingness to be a major strategic actor in the Indo-Pacific. India could come in handy in such signalling. 

The recent, suddenly heightened diplomatic activity between India and France has much value for France in terms of its optics. French President Emmanuel Macron had a phone conversation with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French foreign minister Jean Yves Le Drian met with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

In both meetings, Indo-Pacific (and Afghanistan) figured prominently. MEA's press release noted that Modi and Macron "reviewed the increasing bilateral collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region, and the important role that the India-France partnership plays in promoting stability and security in the region." Moreover, both leaders "agreed to maintain close and regular consultations, in the spirit of the India-France Strategic Partnership, which both countries cherish deeply." 

For India, it may also be the perfect opportunity to further deepen and expand the security cooperation with France in the Indo-Pacific. Reaching out to France when it is feeling betrayed has a sound geopolitical logic.

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