PM Modi’s pledge to restore statehood in Jammu and Kashmir could have regional fallout, open dialogue door with Pakistan

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<strong>Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pledge to restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir is a key strategic move that is likely to impart a powerful impulse for normalisation of ties between India and Pakistan.</strong></p>
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The India-Pakistan-China triangle is also likely to be impacted by the deft move.  </p>
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The timing of the Indian announcement made during the first meeting with mainstream leaders of Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday could not have been better. India’s move docks well with the peace cycle with Pakistan, which had started after the two countries had decided in February to revive the 2003 ceasefire agreement between the two countries.</p>
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<strong>Also Read: <a href="https://www.indianarrative.com/kashmir-news/meeting-with-pm-j-k-parties-accept-august-changes-as-fait-accompli-97710.html">Meeting with PM: J&K parties accept August-2019 changes as fait accompli</a></strong></p>
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By deciding to hold fire along both the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB), Pakistan had in principle agreed not to infiltrate terror groups into Kashmir, which has been usually accomplished under the cover of fire, thus showing its inclination to step back from flaring terrorism in  Kashmir. It is another story though, that despite the ceasefire accord cross-border terror had not been completely throttled, and has continued to simmer in recent months.</p>
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Nevertheless, the ceasefire accord badly  needed a sequel to keep the peace momentum going, and this is has come in the form of PM Modi’s overture to restore statehood in Jammu and Kashmir. The ball is now in Pakistan’s court to respond to India’s pivotal move.</p>
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It is not inconceivable that despite the mixed messaging from Pakistan, Islamabad will now respond in an incremental but positive manner. Afterall, before backtracking from his statement, Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi had gone public on Pakistani television by saying that abrogation of Article 370, accomplished by India on August 5, 2019, was part of New Delhi’s domestic affairs.</p>
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Qureshi’s statement was not a slip-of-tongue. In India, there was a clear perception that foreign minster was reflecting the view of the general Headquarters in Rawalpindi, especially those of the army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, who was supposedly the mastermind of the ceasefire revival, born out of backchannel contacts, which were apparently facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. Of course, Qureshi backtracked from his statement—a move that reflected the Pakistani foreign office’s strong pushback against the military driven peace process with India. The foreign office lobby was raising its objections, which were in tune with resistance that Bajwa was facing, especially from lower ranking officers who were personally and emotively invested in the Kashmir Jihad.</p>
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But PM Modi’s offer of restoration of the J and K’s statehood is expected to strengthen Bajwa’s hand and dampen the resistance towards normalisation of ties with India from influential section of the Pakistani establishment. Crystal ball gazing is always dangerous and history usually adopts a meandering path and not a straight-line course. Nevertheless, it is likely that a new chain of events could follow PM Modi’s move on Thursday.</p>
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It is now not inconceivable that a likely normalisation process between India and Pakistan will move on the commercial track. First, the cross-LoC trade could resume as a confidence building measure, followed by greater volume of trading across the Wagah border with Punjab. The trade bodies in Pakistan and India are in any case keen to restart commercially activity, but have so far been restrained on political grounds.</p>
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<strong>Also Read: <a href="https://www.indianarrative.com/world-news/pak-foreign-minister-says-article-is-india-s-internal-matter-opening-door-for-dialogue-86542.html">Pak Foreign Minister says Article 370 is India’s internal matter, opening door for dialogue</a></strong></p>
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By making the offer of restoring statehood, India may have well avoided a two-front war. With tensions in Ladakh still not fully abated, and China continuing with its infra development in Tibet, the danger of Pakistan opening a second front against India is inimical to India’s interests. But by becalming the LoC and the IB, buttressed by opening of an economic engagement with Pakistan, the chances of a two-front war to that extent have been pushed back, yielding India a significant security bonanza.</p>
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In fact, it is likely that China, in defence of its own interests, would support a breakout of a peace process between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. This is logical as any settlement on Kashmir between India and Pakistan will safeguard the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Gilgit-Baltistan that India claims is an integral part of the Union.  China’s international prestige rides with CPEC, as Beijing has already designated the corridor as the flagship of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a mega-connectivity initiative that covers the entire Eurasian supercontinent.</p>