In yet another indication that New Delhi and Islamabad are inching towards better relations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted the people of Pakistan on the eve of Pakistan Day (March 23).

In a letter to Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, Modi said,  “As a neighbouring country, India desires cordial relations with the people of Pakistan. For this, an environment of trust, devoid of terror and hostility, is imperative.”

A day before, On Sunday,  Modi wished Pakistan PM Imran Khan a 'speedy recovery' after the latter tested positive for Covid-19 on Saturday.  “Best wishes to Prime Minister @ImranKhanPTI for a speedy recovery from COVID-19,” Modi had tweeted.

Though government sources termed Modi’s letter as a courtesy message sent every year on the eve of Pakistan day, there have been indications of a positive movement in ties between India and Pakistan in the backdrop of the thaw that resulted after the Indian and Pakistani armies recommitted themselves to the 2003 ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir.

The decision to adhere to the truce on the volatile LoC was the apparent outcome of behind-the-scenes contacts between the two countries.

Amidst the thaw, India and Pakistan are holding their first meeting in three years of a commission on water rights from the Indus River in a further sign of rapprochement in relations frozen since 2019 cross-border terrorism in Kashmir.

A seven-member sports team from Pakistan has arrived to participate in qualifying matches for the International Tent-Pegging Federation World Cup Championship.

There is also a possibility of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterpart  Shah Mehmood Qureshi meeting in Dushanbe at the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference on March 30.  Later in April, both the ministers will get an opportunity to meet during the UN-led conference on the Afghanistan peace process in Istanbul.

In a major development, India could also take part in a multi-nation exercise to be hosted by Pakistan later this year at its premier anti-terrorism centre in Nowshera district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This exercise “Pabbi-Antiterror-2021” is being held under the aegis of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

However, some hawks say the peace process between India and Pakistan moves in fits and starts, things look up one moment, only to come crashing down the very next. Both countries have been at a similar juncture before, where negotiations had reached an advanced stage and peace seemed imminent. But the process was derailed because of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.

But some analysts do see new structural changes on the ground, which may be persuading the two adversaries to rethink.

First, Pakistan is mindful that if it does not build bridges with India, it could encounter growing pressures of separatism.  At the moment, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa both are on the boil. Terror groups like Tehrik e Taliban (TTP) are regrouping and there is rising disaffection among various communities in Pakistan due to political apathy.  Strong anti-government stirrings have been growing in Gilgit-Baltistan–a crucial piece of territory that China needs in order to complete the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Pakistan is also conscious of the fact that being continuously on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force denies it access to funding from international financial institutions. If it is put on the FATF blacklist, Islamabad will find it difficult to tide over its current financial crisis and will be placed alongside Iran, North Korea and Syria, shutting down all avenues of international funding and it would also face crippling trade sanctions. A thaw with India, which has been demanding stringent action against Pakistan in FATF, could help in mellowing such pressure.

India has its own reasons to support a detente with Pakistan.  Ever since the face-off with China in eastern Ladakh, the possible breakout of a two-front war has become more evident. In this context, the ceasefire on the LoC will ease the pressure on the Indian army, which is already seeking to re-deploy its strike corps on the eastern front.

Given the heavy new compulsions weighing upon Pakistan and, arguably to a lesser, but significant extent on India, the chances are that for now, incremental improvement in the sullied relations maybe on the cards, benefiting core interests of both neighbours.