“The writing is on the wall,” sitting in his sprawling bungalow in Lutyen’s Delhi, a senior BJP leader said. The stupendous electoral victory in four states has given a clear indication that the BJP is here to stay till 2029, the leader who wanted to remain anonymous claimed. 

The elections which were held amid rising unemployment, price rise, anti-farm law protests and post Covid-19 pandemic were being viewed as a popularity test for the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.  The verdict has once again proved that not only the Prime Minister remained at the top of the popularity chart but also drove home the message-“Modi hain toh mumkin hain”. 

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Political Pundits said there is nothing shocking in BJP’s 2019 victory as it was decided in UP 2017.

I am waiting for them to say something like this in 2024 about UP 2022 victory.

PM Modi at BJP HQ pic.twitter.com/JWv8VTvCvw

— Ashish (@aashishNRP) March 10, 2022

True, Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was emerging as a national force following its sensational Punjab victory. His victory is being treated as a light at the end of a dark tunnel by the ragtag Opposition. There’s also Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee whose victory in West Bengal assembly polls was apparently a signal for the resurgence of a United Front against the Modi led BJP. 

Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party’s considerable gain has also made him a key player in the proposed front against the BJP for 2024. RJD’s Tejaswi Yadav, Shiv Sena NCP, TRS among others have also queued up to join the anti-Modi force. 

But here’s the problem. TMC has not been able to cross Bengal. AAP has expanded its base but it has not yet been able to make any dent in the Hindi belt, eastern and southern parts of India. The two credible and probable opposition faces have miles to go before they dominate the centre stage of national politics. Rest are regional forces with limited influence. The vote share of these outfits at the national level do not even touch the double-figure. 

Therefore despite its pathetic electoral performance time and again, Congress still remains a party with a 20% vote share at the national level. Congress and BJP are locked in a direct fight in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka Rajasthan and Assam. 

But a look at the Congress siblings, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra have made it amply it amply clear that they have lost the plot. It might be premature to describe Congress as a dying organisation but it’ll take a miracle to politically and electorally revive this outfit. No Congress leader has lost as many elections as Rahul Gandhi has. The party’s performance in the country’s most populous state ( Uttar Pradesh) has delivered a lethal blow. It’s becoming evidently clear that in a direct fight with BJP the grand old party does not stand a chance. 

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Also what was being ignored by the Modi baiters is Prime Minister’s popularity quotient. Even at 36 %, Prime Minister Modi leads the popularity chart. Rahul Gandhi with a popularity rating of 16% is far behind Narendra Modi. And he is the closest. Also what goes in BJP's favour besides Modi's towering personality is the organisational strength. Aided and abetted by Home Minister, Amit Shah BJP has mastered the art of winning elections. And there's no other leader who can match this Shah of strategy at the national level.  

Incidentally, the so called Opposition unity against the BJP is an urban legend. The Gandhis, despite their fast diminishing influence will not be ready to accept a regional leader as the Prime Ministerial face. Besides Congress' reluctance to give up as a pivot, there are too many PM contenders in the Opposition camp starting from TMC's Mamata Banerjee, to TRS' Chandrashekhar Rao and of course Arvind Kejriwal.  

As for AAP, the latest mascot of the Modi baiters, it has not yet been able to crack the Lok Sabha polls. In the last two Lok Sabha polls, it has not been able to win a single seat in Delhi and has one MP from Punjab. Also both Delhi and Punjab account for 20 Lok Sabha seats. AAP would target Gujarat, which goes to polls at the end of this year to merge as a viable opponent to the BJP.  

Besides Gujarat, assembly elections will be held in other 10 states in the next two years before the general elections. The states to go to polls include Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Telengana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram. Altogether elections will be held in 146 Lok Sabha seats and out of which BJP has 121 of them in its kitty. The direct contest between BJP and Congress which comprise of 95 Lok Sabha seats will be in Guarat, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and  Chhattisgarh. The recently concluded elections have clearly shown the trend. From Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Congress has been to send only three MPs to Lok Sabha. Amit Shah has made it clear that the route to Delhi is via Lucknow. Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha seats will the key state to decide who leads India in 2024. But then if the results of UP assembly polls are anything to go by-"the writing is on the wall."  

 Also read:  After impressive show in assembly polls, BJP now targets 2024 Lok Sabha elections