Foreign Affairs expert Robinder Sachdev discussed India’s immediate and medium-term concerns following the escalation in the Middle East.
Sachdev highlighted that India’s immediate concerns are centred around the safety of the Indian diaspora, particularly labourers working in the region.
“India’s concerns are immediate and direct. First is the safety and security of the Indian diaspora, particularly workers and labourers. Remittances come from this workforce, so if jobs are lost or businesses suffer, remittances will decline. Crude oil prices will also rise, and if Israel targets oil production facilities, it could lead to a global shortage. Oil prices will increase, and with the Suez Canal closed, imports and exports are becoming more expensive. Goods we export to Europe or the US, or imports we receive, are all costing more, so our expenses are rising. These are some of the immediate impacts,” Sachdev said.
In terms of medium-term concerns, Sachdev mentioned potential delays to the India-Middle East-European corridor, a project announced during the G20 summit.
“One medium-term impact is the delay to the India-Middle East-European corridor, which was discussed during the G20 summit but remains in the planning stage. There’s also the added complication of the Chabahar Port project. We aim to establish a trade route from Chabahar to the North-South corridor, connecting us with Russia and Central Asia, but that too will face delays,” he added.
Sachdev also noted the possibility of Pakistan’s involvement, suggesting it might cooperate with Israel and the US, using its shared border with Iran for strategic purposes.
“Pakistan may play a role in the regime change efforts in Iran. It shares over 1,000 km of border with Iran, and Balochistan-based individuals who consider themselves ‘freedom fighters’ could be sent into Iran by Pakistan. Pakistan may also strike a deal with Israel and the US to deploy agents in Iran, as it has done previously in Afghanistan. India must stay vigilant in terms of its own security in this scenario,” Sachdev said.
He also discussed Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah, explaining that while Israel’s strategy relies heavily on air strikes, a ground invasion might prove more challenging due to Hezbollah’s tunnel networks.
“Israel’s operation against Hezbollah primarily involves air strikes, missiles, and drones. However, Israel plans to create a buffer zone by eliminating Hezbollah within 30 km of its border. Hezbollah, with expertise from North Korean and Iranian engineers, has built an extensive tunnel network in South Lebanon. Ground operations may not be as straightforward as Israel anticipates, given the unknown number of Hezbollah’s tunnels. Some of these tunnels even open into Israeli villages; Israel destroyed three such tunnels in 2018 or 2019. As Israeli forces advance into South Lebanon, their operations will involve ground tactics while simultaneously targeting Hezbollah’s command and control centres,” Sachdev stated.
