FIGHTBACK: As vaccines are succeeding, is Covid-19 endgame in sight?

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Amid the gloom and doom  scenario of an alarming surge in the number of Covid-19 infections and deaths worldwide, there is a ray of hope as the latest data from six countries show that vaccines are succeeding in halting the relentless march of the deadly disease. </p>
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While Indianarrative.com had on Wednesday reported the success of Indian vaccines, Financial Times (FT) has analysed statistics from five countries – Israel, the UK, France, the USA and Chile to show that vaccines are working against Covid-19.</p>
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<strong>Also read:</strong>  <a href="https://www.indianarrative.com/health-news/india-s-vaccines-succeed-only-got-covid-after-covishield-shot-in-case-of-covaxin-82666.html">India’s vaccines succeed: Only 0.02% got Covid after Covishield shot & 0.04% in case of Covaxin</a></p>
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“In the countries that have vaccinated the largest shares of their populations, there are tentative signs that the Covid endgame may be in sight. Israel appears to have arrived at the Covid endgame, and the UK is hot on its heels. As countries continue their vaccination programmes, more will join them,” the FT report states.</p>
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An FT analysis of data from five countries — each facing very different scenarios — finds that “rates of infections, hospitalisation and death have traced a lower path among the older, most vaccinated age groups than among younger cohorts, who are least likely to have received the jab. This is regardless of the viral caseload — whether infections are rising or falling, or if a country is grappling with one of the new variants. “</p>
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<strong>Also read: </strong> <a href="https://www.indianarrative.com/health-news/fighting-the-second-wave-of-covid-what-is-the-grand-strategy-82327.html">Fighting the second wave of Covid-19: What is the Grand Strategy?</a></p>
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The results are in stark contrast to the patterns seen during earlier viral waves, before the vaccines were introduced, when older age groups consistently saw rates of illness decline more slowly than the young. </p>
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<strong>India scenario</strong></p>
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The Union Health Ministry data on vaccination in India shows that only 0.04 per cent of those who received the first dose of Bharat Biotech's made-in-India Covaxin contracted Covid. For Serum Institute of India's Covishield, the vaccine developed by Oxford-AstraZeneca, the numbers are even lower, as only about 0.02 per cent of those who received the first dose of Covishield tested positive for Covid.</p>
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In countries where cases have been falling in recent months, the vaccines have saved lives. And in countries that are still struggling to suppress a third or fourth wave, the vaccines have also saved lives.</p>
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Since vaccines are the ultimate weapon against the dreaded coronavirus pandemic,  much will depend on a joint global effort to make the doses available to all the countries.</p>
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<strong>The UK experience</strong></p>
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In the UK, rates of cases, hospital admissions and deaths have fallen steadily since January among all age groups, suggesting that restrictions have helped suppress the towering winter wave of infections. But beneath the surface trend, rates of all three measures have fallen further and faster among the elderly, most-vaccinated groups.</p>
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<strong>France snapshot</strong></p>
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In France the same tell-tale signs are evident. Rates of cases and hospitalisations ticked back upwards in March, but climbed far more slowly among the most-vaccinated age groups than the least. Deaths continued to fall among the elderly despite a resurgence among the young.</p>
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<strong>Chile picture</strong></p>
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The sternest test for the vaccines has come in Chile, where a rapid rollout of China’s Sinovac jab coincided with a substantial third wave of the virus. But once again the age breakdowns tell a hopeful story about the vaccines. Occupancy of intensive care units has more than doubled among younger adults, while falling among the age groups prioritised for vaccination.</p>
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<strong>Major challenges ahead</strong></p>
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However, there are still major challenges ahead as most of the developing countries do not have adequate access to vaccines and are struggling against the coronavirus pandemic.  Millions of people living in these countries will continue to remain at risk in the months ahead even as efforts led by the WHO are on to provide them with more vaccines amid the acute shortage of doses worldwide.</p>