With Biden’s focus on jobs, US-China trade war will not end soon

As president-elect Joe Biden and his deputy Kamala Harris gear up to assume charge of the United States early next year, their economic policies will be analyzed with a fine toothcomb. Needless to say, Biden’s focus would be on increasing jobs in the country. According to the latest data, over 630,000 jobs were added in October, which led to a fall in the unemployment rate from 7.9 per cent to 6.9 per cent. Biden will have a challenging task of reviving the Covid-battered economy.

Experts have one opinion in common—that Biden will broadly follow the economic policies within and outside the country crafted by incumbent President Donald Trump, who had underscored the need to have an “America First” principle.

Many who are expecting an ease or even an end to the US-China trade war after Biden assumes the presidency, could be disappointed as analysts said that the US-China trade war is far from getting over.

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Sanjaya Baru, distinguished fellow, United Service Institution of India and the Institute of Defence Studies & Analysis, pointed out that the Democratic Party comprises members both from the Left as well as Right, and that Biden’s new team will hold key to the future policies.

“We need to wait and watch, a lot will depend on his appointments especially the US Trade Representative and the secretary of treasury. However, Biden will have to broadly follow the policies that are already in place,” Baru said, adding that the president-elect will have to prioritize policies that will boost employment.

“There will be no change on the trade front as far as China is concerned, and the overall approach of Biden is expected to remain the same,” Baru said.

Assocham secretary general Deepak Sood noted that Biden could adopt a “softer posture” towards China unlike Trump. “We could see Biden adopting a different posture towards China, he may not be calling China out every now and then but the hard policies will continue,” Sood said.

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The 77-year-old president-elect had earlier insisted of greater engagements with Beijing.

Sood also said that the issue of supply chain has now come to the fore in the wake of the pandemic and Chinese aggression. “Countries which were overly dependent on China realized that diversification of supply chain is critical, therefore countries, including the US, are unwilling to put all their eggs in the same basket,” Sood said.

As China is in the spotlight for its military aggression and getting more and more isolated globally, the Biden administration is unlikely to change anything substantially from the Trump formula as far as China is concerned.

A Reuters report said that Biden has been “elected with the strong backing of trade unions and progressives who have been skeptical of past free trade deals, so he will face pressure to maintain protections for vulnerable industries, such as steel and aluminum.”

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