Rate decision, US stimulus likely constraints to rupee's further appreciation

Caution over the upcoming monetary policy review along with a strong US dollar is expected to check the appreciation in Indian rupee during the short-term.

Notably, a likely US fiscal stimulus package combined with caution over the upcoming monetary policy review slated for October 1 may limit the rise in the USDINR spot.

"The strength in dollar index, foreign fund outflows could weigh Rupee for next few weeks going ahead," said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

"Dollar continues to gain as concerns about rising Covid-19 cases in ducing a slowdown in the global economic recovery weigh on stock markets and emerging currencies, in turn benefiting the oversold dollar."

Recently, a comment by a senior US Fed official on the need for more US fiscal stimulus added "further fuel to the fire".

"In near term, dollar and the safe haven yen are likely to outperform," he said.

According to Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities: "Rupee closed at 73.60 after a roller coaster week, but remained stable to strong on expected Reliance Retail deal pipeline."

"Other developments such as RBI again mopping-up $3 billion in the previous w eek, S&P affirming India's ratings with a word of caution on future growth outlook are expected curtail the appreciation, however, rupee may strengthen toward 73 in coming days within a range of 73.90 to 73.20."

Besides, market will keep an eye out for the pan-ultimate monetary policy re view for the calendar year 2020 which is slated for October 1.

Last week, the rupee strengthened to Rs 73.60 against a greenback.

"Rupee can be in range of 73.25-74.10 as the dollar index keeps has strong support near $94-94.20, and some upside possibly towards $95-95.40 shall keep rupee appreciation at check," said Jateen Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst (Commodity & Currency) at LKP Securities.

"The market is cautiously awaiting the outcome of the RBI monetary policy me eting on October 1. More or less the range remains between 73.25-74.10 on broad trading."

However, corporate dollar inflows along with IPO listing will keep the appreciation momentum going on for the Indian currency.

"The hope that the US fiscal stimulus package will rollout soon is tempting to think that this may be an end to the dollar bull run, but there s till remains a high risk over the passage of the stimulus package. So unless the bill is passed, we may observe some appreciation in the USDINR spot towards the 74 zone," said Rahul Gupta, Head of Research-Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services.

"However, a slew of corporate dollar inflows along with IPO listing is due next week which may limit the rise in the USDINR spot. Thus, in the coming se ssions we may expect the USDINR spot to trade between 73.40-74.".