India poised to become major driver for global trade, ranks third after US and China: Report

India is set to become a major driver of global trade growth over the next five years, ranking third in terms of absolute trade expansion, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report.

The country is expected to account for 6 per cent of the additional global trade during this period, trailing only China (12 per cent) and the United States (10 per cent).

The report highlighted India’s growing role in international trade, alongside other emerging economies such as Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These countries are forecast to be among the top 30 nations in terms of both trade speed and scale.

It said, “During the next five years, India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth”.

India’s trade performance has been remarkable in recent years. In 2024, it was the 13th largest trading nation globally, yet it recorded a compound annual trade growth rate of 5.2 per cent from 2019 to 2024. This growth far outpaced the global trade expansion rate of just 2 per cent during the same period.

The report attributed India’s rapid trade rise to its strong macroeconomic performance and deeper engagement in global trade networks.

Another key trend observed in the report is the increasing share of global trade involving countries that are not closely aligned with either the United States or China. This share rose from 42 per cent in 2016 to 47 per cent in 2024.

The report stated that, nations like the United Arab Emirates, India, Viet Nam, Brazil, and Mexico have significantly increased their participation in world trade, reinforcing their position as key players in the evolving global economic landscape.

Furthermore, trade involving countries that are considered neutral–neither leaning towards the U.S. nor China–has also risen, growing from 15.4 per cent in 2016 to 17.5 per cent in 2024. This trend highlights a shift towards a more diversified and multipolar trade environment.

With its strong economic fundamentals and increasing trade participation, India is well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory in global commerce. The coming years are expected to see India solidifying its role as one of the fastest-growing trading nations in the world.