Biden expected to be soft on Iran, India hopeful of resuming oil imports from Tehran

The world is now gearing up for a new order as the race for White House draws to a near-close with Joe Biden tipped to be next president of the US. While it is yet to be seen what impact the change of guard has on the global geopolitical order at this critical stage, the Biden administration is set to have far-reaching implications on Iran and other parts of the Middle East.

Washington had stepped up economic pressure against Iran in 2018 after which even India, which was one of the main buyers of Iranian oil, had to stop imports from Tehran.
As New Delhi hopes to further strengthen ties with the Biden administration, it is also hoping to resume oil imports from Iran.

“Oil imports from Iran had stopped, we are hopeful of resuming oil imports from Iran,” a policymaker said.

In September, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh paid a short visit to Iran, amid increased economic activities between Tehran and Beijing. The message was clear: India valued Iran as an important ally and that the bilateral relation between the two will not be dictated by political factors guiding other countries. The visit also raised hopes that the development of the crucial Chabahar project by India would once again gain momentum.

<strong>Increase in global crude oil supply</strong>

Analysts said that one of the most important consequences of the US elections would be easing of global supply of crude oil, as sanctions could be reversed. Biden is keen to revive diplomatic relations with Iran. This would mean supply of an additional 2 million barrels of oil every day, leading to further drop in global crude prices. Low global crude oil prices would boost India’s macro-economic indicators, considering it imports over 80 per cent of its oil needs annually. Crude oil prices have once again dropped below the $40 per barrel level.

India imported close to 10 million tonnes of oil in 2019-20. At a time when the Narendra Modi government is battling an acute economic slowdown—though recent trends show recovery has begun—low global crude oil prices will provide the necessary shot in the arm.

Iran has been traditionally India's second largest supplier of oil after Saudi Arabia until 2010-11. However, after sanctions from the West kicked in over its suspected nuclear program, it slipped to the seventh spot.
“We can resume oil imports from Iran, which has been our old ally,” BJP spokesperson Narendra Taneja told IndiaNarrative.com.

India is also confident that the Biden administration will not impact the strong India-US ties. At present, the US has been one of the most vocal supporters of India especially in the wake of China’s increased territorial aggression.
Though earlier Biden was in support of US engagement policy with China, according to the Diplomat, “over the past year, Biden’s position on China has undergone a tectonic shift as he takes a tougher stance on China’s human rights violation and strategic competition with the United States.”.